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April 15, 2009
2009 Major League Promotion/Relegation Standings

The table below gives the current standings of the hypothetical divisions of Major League Baseball applying the rules I proposed in previous posts here and here. To summarize:
  • Top two teams in each 1st division play for spot in the World Series.
  • Top two teams in each second division will be promoted to the first division next year.
  • Bottom two teams in each first division will be relegated to the second division next year.
  • Third place second division team will play third to last place first division team for a spot in next year's first division.
  • If the first division team in the fourth to last spot has a losing record and the fourth place second division team has a winning record, they will play for a spot in next year's first division. Same rule applies for fifth and sixth place second division teams and fifth and sixth to last first division teams.
The table gives each team's record and the number of games out of first or second place it stands. Also given are the magic numbers for winning the division (1st magic #) or being division runner-up (2nd magic #). As with my table of team magic numbers for the real standings, this table is updated once an hour between 3 p.m. and 3 a.m EDT.
American League First Division
TeamWinsLossesgb 1stgb 2nd1st Magic #2nd Magic #
Boston 48 31 0.0 0.0 82 82
NY Yankees 46 33 2.0 0.0 86 86
LA Angels 43 35 4.5 2.5 89 89
Tampa Bay 44 37 5.0 3.0 88 88
Milwaukee 42 38 6.5 4.5 90 90
Chicago Sox 42 38 6.5 4.5 90 90
Toronto 42 39 7.0 5.0 90 90
Minnesota 41 40 8.0 6.0 91 91
National League First Division
TeamWinsLossesgb 1stgb 2nd1st Magic #2nd Magic #
LA Dodgers 51 29 0.0 0.0 75 75
St. Louis 44 38 8.0 0.0 90 90
Philadelphia 40 37 9.5 1.5 94 94
Chicago Cubs 39 3810.5 2.5 95 95
Florida 41 4010.5 2.5 93 93
Cincinnati 39 3911.0 3.0 95 95
NY Mets 39 4011.5 3.5 95 95
Houston 38 4012.0 4.0 96 96
American League Second Division
TeamWinsLossesgb 1stgb 2nd1st Magic #2nd Magic #
Detroit 44 35 0.0 0.0 84 84
Texas 43 35 0.5 0.0 85 85
Seattle 41 38 3.0 2.5 87 87
Baltimore 36 44 8.5 8.0 92 92
Oakland 33 4510.510.0 95 95
Kansas City 33 4611.010.5 95 95
Cleveland 32 4913.012.5 96 96
National League Second Division
TeamWinsLossesgb 1stgb 2nd1st Magic #2nd Magic #
San Francisco 43 36 0.0 0.0 83 83
Colorado 42 37 1.0 0.0 85 85
Atlanta 39 40 4.0 3.0 88 88
Pittsburgh 37 43 6.5 5.5 90 90
San Diego 34 45 9.0 8.0 93 93
Arizona 31 4912.511.5 96 96
Washington 22 5520.019.0 105 105
updated: Sat Jul 4 02:21:01 EDT 2009

posted at 23:55 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
April 12, 2009
2009 Major League Baseball Magic Numbers

Often towards the end of each baseball season references to the "magic" numbers of teams in play-off contention become more frequent. I thought I would get a head start and create a table listing the numbers as the season progresses. The table lists the magic numbers for a team winning its division as well as the magic numbers for winning the league wild card. The table is updated at 20 after each hour between 3 p.m. and 3 a.m. EDT.
American League
EastWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
Boston 48 31 82 82
NY Yankees 46 33 86 86
Tampa Bay 44 37 88 88
Toronto 42 39 90 90
Baltimore 36 44 96 96
CentralWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
Detroit 44 35 81 88
Chicago Sox 42 38 86 90
Minnesota 41 40 87 91
Kansas City 33 46 95 99
Cleveland 32 49 96 100
WestWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
LA Angels 43 35 85 89
Texas 43 35 85 89
Seattle 41 38 87 91
Oakland 33 45 95 99
National League
EastWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
Philadelphia 40 37 83 94
Florida 41 40 85 93
NY Mets 39 40 87 95
Atlanta 39 40 87 95
Washington 22 55 104 112
CentralWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
St. Louis 44 38 81 90
Milwaukee 42 38 83 92
Chicago Cubs 39 38 86 95
Cincinnati 39 39 86 95
Houston 38 40 87 96
Pittsburgh 37 43 88 97
WestWinsLossesDivision Magic #Wild Card Magic #
LA Dodgers 51 29 76 76
San Francisco 43 36 91 91
Colorado 42 37 92 92
San Diego 34 45 100 100
Arizona 31 49 103 103
updated: Sat Jul 4 02:21:01 EDT 2009

posted at 03:45 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
April 06, 2009
Major League Baseball 2008 Relegation Report

Today is the opening day of the 2009 Major League Baseball season, so let's look back at the results of the 2008 season to see who will be playing for promotion and who can play in the World Series this year. For a review of the promotion/relegation criteria see my original entry and the 2007 report for an update to the criteria.

The 2008 final standings are shown in the table below.
American League 2008 First Division
Team Record GB
Los Angeles Angels 100-62 -
Boston Red Sox 95-67 5
Milwaukee Brewers 90-72 10
New York Yankees 89-73 11
Toronto Blue Jays 86-76 14
Cleveland Indians 81-81 19
Detroit Tigers 74-88 26
Seattle Mariners 61-101 39
National League 2008 First Division
Team Record GB
Chicago Cubs 97-64 -
Philadelphia Phillies 92-70 5.5
New York Mets 89-73 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals 86-76 11.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 84-78 13.5
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-80 15.5
Colorado Rockies 74-88 23.5
San Diego Padres 63-99 34.5
American League 2008 Second Division
Tampa Bay Rays 97-65 -
Chicago White Sox 89-74 8.5
Minnesota Twins 88-75 9.5
Texas Rangers 79-83 18
Oakland Athletics 75-86 21.5
Kansas City Royals 75-87 22
Baltimore Orioles 68-93 28.5
National League 2008 Second Division
Houston Astros 86-75 -
Florida Marlins 84-77 2
Cincinnati Reds 74-88 12.5
Atlanta Braves 72-90 14.5
San Francisco Giants 72-90 14.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 67-95 19.5
Washington Nationals 59-102 27

In the American League, the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners were relegated to the second division while the Cleveland Indians and and Minnesota Twins would have played for spot in the first division. The Twins won the season series with the Indians 10-8 and so were promoted to the first division. The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox were promoted to the first division as champions and runners-up of the second division.

In the National League, the Cincinnati Reds won the season series with the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2 to win a spot in the first division and relegating Arizona to the second division. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres were relegated to the second division while the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres were promoted to the first division.

The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels would have met in the American League Championship Series and since the Red Sox won their actual meeting in their division series against the Angels, Boston would have gone on to play in the World Series. In the National League, the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies would have played for a spot in the World Series. The Phillies won the season series 4-3 and so would have played Boston in the World Series. Boston and Philadelphia played 3 times in the regular season with Boston winning 2-1. Since these games were played in Philadelphia it seems these results indicate clearly that Boston would win an actual series. Thus, Boston is my hypothetical 2008 World Series champion.**

In summary, the 2009 Major League Baseball First and Second Divisions are shown below.
American League
2009 1st Division
National League
2009 1st Division
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Florida Marlins
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
2009 2nd Division2009 2nd Divison
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals


**Previous WS Champs: Hypothetical (Real): 2005 Cardinals (White Sox), 2006 Mets (Cardinals), 2007 Red Sox (Red Sox), 2008 Red Sox (Philadelphia).


posted at 07:27 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
May 24, 2008
Time for Clinton to end her campaign

Given Hillary's Clinton's recent comments concerning the assasination of Robert Kennedy in 1968, it's become obvious she is not fit for the presidency. Here is what she said:

"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it."

First of all, these comments are insensitive, not only for hinting, whether intentional or not, at the prospect of the assasination of a political opponent but also given the recent diagnosis of Robert Kennedy's brother Ted with brain cancer. There is no excuse for such a comment. However, even giving Clinton the benefit of the doubt here, taking her at her word that she was only invoking historical references, is difficult. She is being intellectually dishonest.

In 1968, only 13 states held primaries. California, being one of the obvious "big states", held their primary on June 5. New York held it's primary after California, demonstrating that the primary election calendar extended beyond this year's end date. In 1992, again the primary calendar was extended beyond this year's end date, with "big states" such as Ohio and California, holding primaries in late May or June. Thus, if it's the "big states" that really matter to her, they're already finished this year, as she should be.

On a side note, Clinton continues to talk about seating the delegations of Florida and Michigan because she wants their votes to be counted, claiming that not counting those votes disenfranchises millions of people. On the other hand, she has claimed that if the primary were winner-take-all she would already be the nominee. But, doesn't electing delegates in a winner-take-all fashion disenfranchise those who voted for the losing candidate? Isn't it more fair to allocate delegates based on the number of votes, so that the votes of everyone counts for something at the nominating convention?

I would think that for someone as smart as Mrs. Clinton that it's not to hard to understand. The reason the nominating battles went so late in previous years is because a large percentage of people had not yet voted and delegates had not yet been awarded when the calendar turned to June. The two examples that Clinton cites for long primary battles, nevermind the historical problems that polictical parties have had reuniting after a protracted nomination battle, are misleading at best and dishonest at worst. It's time for Clinton to end her campaign, or if she won't do it gracefully, for the superdelegates to align behind Obama and end this campaign for her.

posted at 18:41 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
March 13, 2008
Revote in Michigan and Florida?

Although I am an admitted Obama supporter, I'll try to form an unbiased opinion about the situation with seating delegates from Michigan and Florida. First of all, it is obviously unfair to use the results of the initial primaries. This is not only unfair to the candidates who pledged not to campaign in those states, but also to the voters who decided not to go to the polls after being told their votes wouldn't count. Secondly, using the initial results sets a precedent for future primary seasons so that other states may begin moving up their primaries with the expectation that their delegates would eventually be seated at the convention. So, is the answer a revote?

No, I do not believe revote is the solution either. Again, that sets a bad precedent that if you mess up big time, it's okay, you get a do over. The anger toward the national party leaders is misdirected, intentionally so by leaders in each state. The voters in Michigan and Florida should be upset with their state representatives and leaders who held the primaries early despite warnings from the national party that doing so would mean their delegates would not be seated. Thus the voters in each state should remove from office those that disenfranchised them from having a voice in the Democratic Presidential nomination process and not direct anger at the national party leaders.

However, it seems likely a revote will occur. Should this happen, I believe that Michigan and Florida still must suffer some consequences for not following the rules they had originally agreed to. The punishment handed down by the Republican party seems appropriate, halving the number of delegates for each state. So, even with a revote Michigan and Florida still should lose some delegates for this season to send the message to other states in the future that the rules everyone agreed to should be followed.


posted at 15:25 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
March 12, 2008
Am I voting for Obama or against Clinton?

The Democratic Party's presidential nomination process has captured the attention of the country, leaving many of us, myself included, hungry for every tidbit of information that can be found. Not so long ago in 2004 a young and charismatic Illinois State Senator by the name of Barack Obama delivered an inspiring speech at the Democratic National Convention. With this speech, he burst onto the national scene and whispers of a potential presidential run started almost immediately. I for one was optimistic that he would run, and in February of 2007 my hope came true.

Did Hillary Clinton speak at the 2004 convention? I can't recall, and if she did it certainly wasn't memorable. And while it does take more than speeches to get anything accomplished, a leader must first capture the attention of those they are empowered to lead. Messages of inspiration, unification, and hope are necessary in this time of economic turmoil and war and only one major candidate is providing those for our nation.

It is amazing that the Obama campaign has positioned itself where it is. Barack took on the establishment of the party and the most powerful couple in the party, the Clintons. Certainly their platforms are very similar and I don't agree with every political stance they have. The primary difference, though, is the message that each candidate is sending to the electorate. Obama is spreading inspiration, hope, and leadership in a campaign that seems aimed at putting our country back on track. Clinton is spreading misinformation, venom, and doubletalk in a campaign that seems aimed more at accomplishing Clinton's ambition to become the first female President than at doing good for the country.

I would have preferred a more libertarian candidate who would respect the Constitution and ensure civil liberties were protected. However, I believe given the times that Obama is the best candidate of those that can reasonably expect to win the presidency. He has promised to "discard Bush's unconstitutional executive orders"1 and statements like that have reassured me. More than that, however, I prefer a candidate who seems to respect the intelligence of the voters. Obama's willingness to cross party lines to get things accomplished (well established by his record in the Illinois State Senate and US Senate) combined with his message of hope, the intelligence with which he speaks, and the respect he gives to voters makes him the first Presidential candidate for whom I want to cast a vote for rather than voting against another.

That being said, the way in which the Clinton campaign has been run makes it impossible for me to ever cast a vote for her. It has been a campaign of hypocrisy, misinformation, religious intolerance, racism, and the same fear-mongering employed by the Bush administration. It started with Bill Clinton's attempt to cast Obama as "the black candidate" by comparing him to Jesse Jackson and has continued with Clinton's relative silence to Geraldine Ferraro's comments that Obama is only in the position that he is in because he's black. The anger that spewed forth at one of Obama's advisors calling Clinton a "monster" seems all the more hypocritical in light of one of Clinton's advisor's racist comments. The lack of action on removing Ferraro, a member of her campaign finance committee, from her campaign speaks loud and clear to her ambition to become president at all costs rather than to an ambition doing real good for our country.

Obama hasn't been perfect himself in this campaign, but he has certainly carried himself with more dignity than Clinton has. Our leaders should not resort to crying and hypocritical "shame on you" comments or claims of political experience that they really don't have (see her claims of international diplomacy forays,2 one of which ironically includes a speech).

As for the question of experience? It's certainly true Clinton has more experience living in Washington than does Obama, but then so does Bush and that hasn't made him a good president that last few years. Furthermore, if we're voting for experience that John McCain should be our choice, not Clinton. And what would Clinton say of the charismatic, inspiring young Democratic elected president in 1992? Someone by the name of Bill Clinton who had zero elected office experience in Washington prior to his Presidency. Which of the Senators did she support over her husband that year, Tom Harkin, Bob Kerrey, Eugene McCarthy, or Paul Tsongas?

Thus my support, my vote, and a modest contribution from me are going to Barack Obama. It will be my first vote for a Presidential candidate rather than against another. Admittedly, it is his inspirational messages of hope that drew me to his campaign, and I believe he deserves a chance to deliver on these promises. He might not succeed, but I think that's all he and his supporters are asking for: a chance to do something good for our country.

References:
1.
Newsvine
2. Seattle Times

posted at 16:55 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 1
November 18, 2007
Major League Baseball 2007 Relegation Report

Now the the 2007 Major League Baseball regular season is over, let's see how the final standings play out given the promotion/relegation criteria I previously proposed .

The final standings are shown in the table below.
American League 2007 First Division
Team Record GB
Boston Red Sox 96-66 -
Los Angeles Angels 94-68 2
New York Yankees 94-68 2
Detroit Tigers 88-74 8
Toronto Blue Jays 83-79 13
Minnesota Twins 79-83 17
Oakland Athletics 76-86 20
Chicago White Sox 72-90 24
National League 2007 First Division
Team Record GB
Philadelphia Phillies 89-73 -
San Diego Padres 89-73 -
New York Mets 88-74 1
Los Angeles Dodgers 82-80 7
St. Louis Cardinals 78-84 11
Houston Astros 73-89 16
Cincinnati Reds 72-90 17
San Francisco Giants 71-91 18
American League 2007 Second Division
Cleveland Indians 96-66 -
Seattle Mariners 88-74 12
Milwaukee Brewers 83-79 13
Texas Rangers 75-87 21
Baltimore Orioles 69-93 27
Kansas City Royals 69-93 27
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 66-96 30
National League 2007 Second Division
Arizona Diamondbacks 90-72 -
Colorado Rockies 90-72 -
Chicago Cubs 85-77 5
Atlanta Braves 84-78 6
Washington Nationals 73-89 17
Florida Marlins 71-91 19
Pittsburgh Pirates 68-94 22

In the American League, the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox would be relegated to the second divsion with the Cleveland Indians and Seattle Mariners promoted to the first division. The Minnesota Twins would face the Milwaukee Brewers in a playoff series for the final first division spot. Since the Twins and Brewers split their season series 3-3, we'll use aggregate runs to declar the winner. The Brewers outscored the Twins by the thinnest of margins, 34-33, in their six games together and thus the Brewers would win promotion to the American League first division.

The American League championship series would be played between Boston Red Sox and either the Los Angeles Angels or New York Yankees. The Angels went 6-3 against the Yankees in the regular season and so would have met the Red Sox in the ALCS. Since the Red Sox and Angels met in an actual Division Series, I'll use those results to decide the AL champ. Boston swept the Angels 3-0, and so would be the American League represenative in the World Series, as they actually were.

The National League presents a compelling case for reassessing the criteria for promotion and relegation. Half the teams in the first division had losing records, while over half in the lower division had winning records. One can certainly argue that more than three teams from the lower division could improve enough to deserve promotion in a given year. Thus, the following amendment is made to the promotion/regulation criteria: Any team outside of the bottom 3 in the first division with a losing record will be forced into a playoff with team from the second division, provided there is corresponding second division team outside of the top 3 with a winning record. Thus, the St. Louis Cardinals would face the Atlanta Braves in an additional playoff series with a spot in the 2008 first divison going to the winner.

The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are relegated to the National League's second division while the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are promoted to the first division. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros would participate in a playoff for a spot in the first division, as would the Cardinals and Braves due to the above mentioned amendment. The Cubs went 8-7 against the Astros, winning promotion to the first division while forcing the Astros to be relegated to the second division. The Cardinals were 4-3 against the Braves thus preserving their spot in the first division and keeping the Braves in the second division for another year.

The National League championship series would be played between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. The Phillies went 4-3 against San Diego in the regular season, and so the Phillies would meet the Red Sox in the World Series. Since these teams never met in the regular season, records against common opponents must be used. Against common opponents* Boston was 43-28 while Philadelphia was 29-35. Thus Boston is my hypothetical World Series Champion, and for the first year my hypothetical champion is the same as the real champion.**



In summary, the 2008 Major League Baseball First and Second Divisions are shown below.
American League
2008 1st Division
National League
2008 1st Division
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
2008 2nd Division2008 2nd Divison
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Florida Marlins
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals


*Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago(AL), Cleveland, Colorado, Detroit, Kansas City, San Diego, San Francisco, and Toronto.
**Previous WS Champs: Hypothetical (Real): 2005 Cardinals (White Sox), 2006 Mets (Cardinals), 2007 Red Sox (Red Sox).

posted at 02:33 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
May 14, 2007
Find Habeas Corpus

It's been awhile since my last posting as I've been extemely busy with grad school and all. However, I feel that I must make a post in support of something I really believe is important for our country's future.

The American Civil Liberties Union has a petition supporting the Restoration of our Constitutional Rights that I believe any true patriot of our country should sign. Regardless of your polictical affilation, this issue is something we can all agree upon. The erosion of civil liberties and violation of human rights that have occured under the watch of the Bush administration must be stopped and reversed. Asking Congress to take a stand on this issue is something we not only should we do, but must do as citizen's of this great country.

As a side to their campaign, the ACLU has also started a website, findhabeas.com. The concept is a bit corny, but it does offer the opportunity for debate and dialogue on this very important topic.



Sign the Restore Our Constitutional Rights petition.

posted at 17:03 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
February 14, 2007
Libloggery One Year Anniversary!

One year ago today, I registered the domain name for the Libloggery and began tinkering with it. The first "official" entry was "The hickory tree. . ." on Feb. 14, 2006, although I altered the timestamp of the Libloggery's introduction post to be Feb. 12, 2006.

Including that first post, I've made 171 entries to the Libloggery that include photographs, political opinion, poetry, prose, game solutions, and science interests. The diversity of these posts is indicative not only of my interests, but a struggle I've had in giving the Libloggery an identity. I envision the Libloggery as being a sort of library of blogs, with each section of the "Blog Menu" being a separate and somewhat independent blog. I also feel as though I've "copted out" at times by simply creating entries that are little more than links to someone else's content. While that's not all bad, I should be working harder to create my own content and at least add entertaining or insightful commentary when creating such an entry.

The last few months at the Libloggery have been slow, but that's primarily due to my day job. The life of a grad student often leaves little time for extracurricular pursuits. But, with the light at the end of the tunnel (let's hope it's not a freight train), I should be graduating soon and moving on to a post-doctoral position at which time I will probably be able to devote even less time to the Libloggery. :)

It's been a fun first year. I've learned a bit more about html, cascading style sheets, and minimal perl. Just enough to be dangerous, that is. This website is probably not the best example of coding on the internet. But it is mine, and I look forward to another and better year.

posted at 01:49 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 0
February 07, 2007
Defeat of comment spam in pollxn?

Over the last few months or so, I noticed an alarming amount of comment spam being posted here at the Libloggery. Some stories seemed very popular with the spambots, but I think I've found a way to defeat them in the pollxn comment program. At least for the time being.

I "hacked" my pollxn.cgi script to read the response to a math question a commenter must answer before submitting their comment. So, if you don't answer the question or answer it wrongly, the comment will not be accepted. This might not be the best way to do it, but I do hope it will reduce my comment spam. If you'd like to see specifically how I implemented this, feel free to comment or contact me.


posted at 06:45 by Alvin | permalink | | Comments - 2





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